Maintaining Security, Peace and Stability Post US Troop Withdrawal
Author:Bibi Sadia Habib
Maintaining Security, Peace and Stability Post US Troop Withdrawal
In October 2001, the United States invaded Afghanistan to oust the Taliban, claiming that they were harboring Osama Bin Laden and other al-Qaeda leaders connected to the 9/11 attacks (Afghanistan war: What has the conflict cost the US, 2021). They aimed to eradicate Al-Qaida and prevent further attacks on the US, such as 9/11. (Feis, 2021). Since then, the United States has been engaged in the Afghan war, also known as the never-ending or eternal war. It's been dubbed "the longest war in US history" (The Wall Street Journal, 2021). The number of US troops in Afghanistan increased as the US pumped billions of dollars into the country to combat the Taliban insurgency and finance reconstruction (Afghanistan war: What has the conflict cost the US, 2021). There have been many failed attempts of brining the insurgent group (Taliban) and the Afghan government into a table of peace negotiations in past years. However, former US President Donald Trump resurrected the Afghan peace talks and attempted to re-launch negotiations between the government and the group. The Ashraf Ghani administration, which backed the initiative, expressed their will of negotiating with the Taliban without any preconditions and made a number of commitments to the group (including releasing imprisoned Taliban and recognizing the insurgency as a political party) (Seren, 2021). However, the Taliban turned their back to the Afghan government and expressed their will of addressing themselves directly and only to the US in 2019. As a result, the Taliban and the US concluded an agreement in February 2020; the US promised troop’s withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Taliban promised ceasefire and committed themselves to eradicating violence (Seren, 2021). However, the promises made by the Taliban were solely to the US itself and not to Afghan government. It was 12th September 2020 that the intra-Afghan peace negotiations between the Taliban and the Afghan government first took place in Doha Qatar, but the two sides are yet to conclude an agreement (Saif, 2020). While Afghanistan is in a very sensitive phase, the Biden administration on 14th April announced that an unconditional troop withdrawal will soon commence. The US president Joe Biden stated that; “it’s time to end America’s longest war” (The U.S. War in Afghanistan, 2021). According to the announcement, by September 11th 2021, all US troops will withdraw from Afghanistan, marking the end of US’s longest-run war on the 20th anniversary of the 9/11 terror attack in the US (Feis, 2021). This announcement of US troop withdrawal has become a great source of concern to the whole Afghan nation while being celebrated by the Americans and the insurgent group. What concerns the Afghan government and the population in particular is the post-withdrawal situation of the country especially in regards to the national security as the Afghan security forces will no longer have the support of the US military. This paper argues that in order to prevent a deterioration/worsening of security and steer the country towards stability and peace, the government of Afghanistan should gain the support of the country’s political elites and establish a united political front against the insurgent group, ensure financial support to the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF), build strong governance and protect democratic values by relaying upon the Afghan constitution. The decision by the Biden administration regarding troop withdrawal has serious implications for Afghanistan as the country must deal with the Taliban and carry the peace negotiations with the insurgency on their own; without the support of the US. The Afghan government and the Taliban were unable to agree on the rules and regulations of the negotiations. Hence, a peace agreement cannot be predicted immediately. Meanwhile, the insurgent group is adamant about not agreeing to a cease-fire with the Afghan government or committing themselves on reducing violence. So, likelihood of another outbreak of a civil war in the country are high with the absence of unity between political elites, different ethnicities and other opponents, which is of major concern to the Afghans. Recent reports indicate a 29% increase on the number of civilian causalities just in the first three months of 2021 as compared to the same amount of period in 2020 (Aljazeera, 2021). This rising number of military and civilian casualties has already alarmed Afghan politicians on highest decision-making positions of the risks associated with the US troop withdrawal. It is very important for the Afghan community including political opponents like Ashraf Ghani and Dr. Abdullah Abdullah, as well as ethnic groups like Pahstuns, Hazaras, Tajiks, and all other opponents to put aside their differences for once and become united in fighting the bigger enemy; the insurgent groups like the Taliban and Al-Qaeda. Some may suggest gradual movements towards a decentralized government and propose power-sharing mechanism as a means to ensure the representation of various groups and political elites in the political system as the solution to reach stability within the country. However, the decentralization of the government is actually counterproductive for the state’s survival as well as state/nation-building efforts in post[1]conflict societies. As Burhanzoi (2020) argues; “the present political instability is not an outcome produced by the mere existence of a nominal centralized government in Kabul; instead, it is the result of de facto decentralized governance practices. All of Afghanistan’s post-Bonn governments were based on power-sharing, and history has taught us that power-sharing is not a remedy for the state’s ills”. So, rather than changing the political system in such critical times, it is of major importance for the political elites of Afghanistan to put aside their differences, self-interests and greed and become united for a common purpose; combating instability and insecurity. Ensuring financial support and assistance for the ANDSF and provide them with enough military equipment is of great importance in maintaining security and stability and thus, should be the priority of the country’s president. The president should seek national and international financial assistance for the security forces of Afghanistan in order to increase the country’s self[1]defense capabilities and efficiency (Seren, 2021). Not to mention, Afghanistan has a great number of human resources which can be greatly utilized in increasing the Afghan self-defense efficiency if well-trained and managed which also requires the assignment of a good amount of budget to it. Furthermore, in order to steer Afghanistan towards stability and peace and prevent state collapse, a strong governance should be build. As Kasfir (2004) argues in his work, one of the contributing factors to instability within a state and the outbreak of civil war and conflict is weak governance as it can potentially lead a state towards failure. In order to build strong governance, the first criteria for any state is to have legitimacy, which has two types: input legitimacy (citizen consent), and output legitimacy (the citizens’ inclination for supporting the state’s right to governance) (Belman & Lerner, 2006). Additionally, the Afghan government has a very important task that is to protect the democratic rights of its population and the democratic values that were embedded the hard way post 2001. While the 2004 constitution is flawed and needs to be amended, doing so in such phase is not recommended. Instead, it should be protected and highly utilized by the government in the upcoming critical time since the rights, regulations and the laws outlined in the constitution are welcomed and accepted by majority of Afghans. The 2004 constitution upholds democratic values but at the same time does not contradict with the holy religion of Islam (the Hanafi school of thought); which also contributes to its’ acceptance by the citizens. So, the government should stick to the constitutions’ democratic values. To conclude, the US invaded Afghanistan in 2001 with the aim to fight the Taliban who are believed to have had linkage with the Al-Qaeda (the insurgent group responsible for the 9/11 terror attack in the US). The concerns for the future of Afghanistan is rising as the Biden administration announced the withdrawal of all US troop by 11th September 2021. It has been argued in this paper that in order to prevent a deterioration/worsening of security and steer the country towards stability and peace, the government of Afghanistan should try on uniting political elites to front the Taliban, ensure financial assistance to ANDSF so they don’t run out of military equipment, work on building a strong governance in order to be able to take control over its population and territory and govern them rightfully for the prevention of state collapse or the outbreak of civil war/conflict, and stick to the democratic values outlined in the 2004 constitution.
References
Belman, & Lerner. (2006). Constitutional Design, Identity, and Legitimacy in Post-Conflict Reconstructions. In D. W. Brinkerhoff, Governance in Post-Conflict Socitiess: Rebuilding Fragile States (pp. 45-63). London: Taylor and Francis.
Feis, A. (2021). US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan begins May 1, ends Sept.11. NEW YORK POST .
Kasfir, N. (2004). Domestic Anarchy, Security Dilemmas, and Vioent Predation. . In Rotberg, When States Fail: Causes and Consequences (pp. 55-72). New Jersey: Princeton University Press.
(2021). The U.S. War in Afghanistan. Council on Foreign Relations.
- 2021 Jun - 26
